One useful index which we’re tracking here at REFIRE is the so-called Corona Real Estate Index, organized and collated by industry network baumonitoring.com which gathers data from currently 100 market participants providing information on about 170 project develpments throughout Germany.
The index’s 5th weekly reading shows that the initial two-week hiatus has now given way to the resumption of business with only slight to medium bottlenecks in the supply of personnel and materials.
On the availability of personnel, 31% (previous week 30%) currently report no restrictions. 56% of the participants register slight restrictions due to lack of personnel (previous week 70%). However, in this 5th reading 13% report medium restrictions due to lack of personnel on construction sites (previous week 0%), but no one reports severe obstacles or even standstill.
The supply and availability of materials also remains stable. In the current survey 44% of the participants see no restrictions (previous week 40%). While for this reading 50% of the respondents saw slight restrictions in the supply of materials, 60% had said so the week before.
The so-called ‘fever curve’ of the Corona Real Estate Index currently shows 37.2 degrees, which is a minimal temperature increase compared to the previous week (plus 0.1 degrees). The scale is based on human body temperature, and ranges from 36.5 degrees (no impairment) to 41.5 degrees (indicating a complete halt to construction).
According to Moritz Koppe, managing director of emproc SYS and an initiator of the Corona Real Estate Index, "After five weeks of Corona Real Estate Index we can say the real estate industry is stable. While in the first two weeks 11% reported severe problems including up to a standstill (personnel plus material problems), this phase seems to be over. In view of further easing of the Corona lockdown, we will continue to analyze the situation". Emproc, based in Munich and Berlin, is a cost-controlling and building monitoring consultant, and owner of the PROBIS Expert proptech which provides digital processing software.
The survey is carried out by Alyne, a company specializing in cybersecurity and risk management, and is supported by a range of companies involved in monitoring building projects, including Cushman & Wakefield, Real Estate Lounge, RICS, alyne, Fraunhofer, Norton Rose Fulbright, building radar, alphazirkel, Capmo, Flowinvest and Mailänder Consult.
