If you want to know where the rot really started, one name sticks out above all others in the panoply of alchemists who believed they could create wealth out of paper - and who certainly succeeded in having his audience suspend their disbelief until it all came crashing down around their ears. Unfortunately John Law is no longer around to soak up our abuse and absorb the ire of the latest generation of Europeans who are now learning to their cost that, in financial terms, if it seems too good to be true, it almost certainly is.
The big problem is the stubbornly high level of office vacancy rates which, from an investor’s point of view, continue to weigh down on the market and act as a damper on achievable yields. Ominously, real estate research group BulwienGesa reckon in their latest market outlook that the bulk of new jobs created will in any event bypass the office sector, which it sees as rising by 0.9%, at most.
After months of weighing up appropriate reform legislation for Germany’s embattled open-ended real estate funds (GOEF) industry, it looked this week as if Germany’s ruling coalition had managed to find agreement on a new set of rules for the industry, which has been plagued with uncertainty and volatile investor behaviour since October 2008. Meanwhile, the European Public Real Estate Association EPRA vowed to continue its campaign to “liberate the German market” from what it sees as an unhealthy domination of the sector by the open-ended funds at the expense of the stock-market listed sector. The drive by Berlin to reform the GOEF sector has been gathering pace over the last two years, but has intensified since May of last year when original proposals emanating from Berlin led to a fresh wave of investor panic leading to fund withdrawals, and ultimately, the announcement of fund liquidation by three groups – Aberdeen Immobilien, Morgan Stanley and the KanAm Group. These funds are currently unwinding their positions and have announced a series of staggered payments over the next three years to their shareholders as assets are progressively sold off. This month saw shareholders in Aberdeen’s Degi Europa receive the first tranche of 20% of their fund’s (albeit shrunken, after heavy write-downs) total value. A further nine real estate funds remain frozen to investor redemptions, in most cases availing of the maximum period of closure permissible under German law before having to declare whether they will re-open or likewise face liquidation.
What surprises us at REFIRE is the outrage that is greeting the Goldman Sachs disclosures. Goldman may be the Master Vampire Squid, but in the rarefied world of private equity investing, where the punters pay hefty premiums for blue chip banking names to likewise ‘relentlessly jam their blood funnels into anything that smells like money’, they are not alone.
A handful of major deals obviously played a big role in the early-year figures, such as Corio’s takeover of fellow Dutch investor Multi’s German retail assets, and the sale of three big Berlin shopping centres. But anecdotal evidence (as well as frontline reports from the big broker groups) suggest renewed interest from UK and US investors in Germany, as well as Asian and Middle Eastern sovereign funds, with first deals from the latter groups imminent.
Posted on 10 February 2010
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Posted on 26 December 2009
REFIRE-AMERICAS publishes and broadcasts articles, interviews, commentary, and blogs of significant interest to professionals and business looking to monitor new initiatives and trends, and stay ahead of the market. Get in touch with Barbara Spohn or Ian Cameron at www.refire-americas.com Continue Reading